In the first three months of 1945, Japan’s
military leaders forged a strategy they called Ketsu Go (Operation Decisive) to
obtain the political bargaining chips to terminate the war in a manner they
could abide. They were confident that no amount of blockade and bombardment,
even if it cost the lives of millions of their countrymen, could compel them to
yield. Moreover, they believed an impatient American populace would propel
their antagonist to avoid a protracted siege and attempt to end the war
swiftly. That dictated an invasion of the Japanese homeland.
Japanese strategists next examined the map
in light of American operational habits. The United States could be expected to
bring its huge preponderance of air strength to bear in support of an invasion.
Land-based aircraft constituted the majority of U.S. air assets and thus
dictated that the invasion must fall on an area within range of land-based
fighter aircraft. From the positions the Japanese expected their opponent to
hold by the summer of 1945, the nearest bases would be Okinawa and Iwo Jima.
Okinawa, but not Iwo Jima, could support thousands of tactical aircraft,
smaller than the B-29s that were already bombing the home islands. From
Okinawa, American flyers could reach Kyushu and parts of Shikoku. Of these two,
Kyushu offered the better set of potential air and sea bases from which to
mount an attack on the obvious supreme objective—Tokyo, the political and
industrial hub of Japan. A simple scan of the topographical map of Kyushu
easily revealed to Japanese commanders three of the four chosen American
invasion sites. Thus, the Japanese anticipated not only an invasion, but the
two most probable invasion areas, the sequence of the two probable invasions,
and the exact landing sites on Kyushu.
With a firm grasp of the strategic
essentials, Japan embarked on a massive mobilization program. By midsummer
there would be sixty divisions and thirty-four brigades mustering 2.9 million
men in the homeland. A strict conservation program, plus the conversion of the
aviation training establishment into kamikaze units, yielded the Japanese over
10,000 aircraft, half suicide planes, to confront the invasion. These forces
were arrayed with primary emphasis on defending southern Kyushu and Tokyo.
By comparison to the tortured,
military-dominated Japanese political structure, its well-designed American
counterpart placed ultimate authority in civilian hands. But those hands
changed on April 12, 1945, with the death of Franklin D. Roosevelt, which
thrust Harry S Truman into the presidency. Roosevelt signally failed to ready
Truman for his responsibilities, so the new president turned to his senior
advisers for guidance on political and military strategy. Truman’s military
advisers, however, were not in accord on the strategy to end the war.
The United States Navy, led by Fleet
Admiral Ernest King, had reached a number of fundamental conclusions about the
conduct of a war with Japan based on decades of intense study. None of these
precepts was more deeply held than the principle that it would be absolute
folly to invade Japan. Naval officers calculated that the United States could
never mount expeditionary forces across the Pacific that would even equal the
manpower Japan would mobilize to defend the homeland and the terrain would
wholly negate American advantages in heavy equipment and vehicles. Therefore,
entrenched Navy doctrine held that the sound way to bring a war with Japan to a
close was by a campaign of blockade and bombardment, including intense aerial
bombing.
When the United States Army, led by General
George C. Marshall, came to focus attention belatedly on how to bring a war
with Japan to a close, it swiftly adopted the view that only an invasion could
bring the conflict to an acceptable conclusion. After extended debate over
these competing views, the Joint Chiefs of Staff reached an unstable compromise
in April 1945. The army secured ostensible approval for a two-phase invasion
campaign, code-named Operation Downfall. The first phase, Operation Olympic,
set for November 1, 1945, involved a landing designed to secure approximately
the southern third of Kyushu. This would provide air and naval bases to support
a second amphibious assault, Operation Coronet, set for March 1, 1946, aimed to
secure the Tokyo region.
The Joint Chiefs justified this strategy on
the basis that the overall American war aim was an unconditional surrender that
would assure that Japan never again posed a threat to peace. But history raised
formidable doubts about the practicality of that goal. No Japanese government
had capitulated in 2,600 years; no Japanese detachment had surrendered in the
entire course of the Pacific War. Accordingly, there was no guarantee either
that a Japanese government would ever capitulate, or that Japan’s armed forces
would bow to such a command. Thus, the American nightmare was not the initial
invasion of the homeland, but the prospect that there would be no organized
capitulation of Japan’s armed forces, over four million strong. Indeed, the
official rationale for the invasion plan declared that it would be more likely
than blockade and bombardment to produce the capitulation of Japan’s
government, and it would best position the United States to deal with the situation
if Japan’s armed forces did not surrender.
The navy obtained agreement that the
campaign of blockade and bombardment would continue at an accelerating rate for
six months prior to Olympic. Admiral King, however, explicitly warned his
colleagues on the Joint Chiefs in April that he only concurred that orders for
an invasion must be issued promptly so that all the preparations for such a
gigantic enterprise could be mounted. He warned that the Joint Chiefs would
revisit the necessity for an invasion in August or September.
Radio intelligence proved King prescient.
During July and August, ULTRA unmasked for American leaders the ambush awaiting
Olympic. The 680,000 Americans, including fourteen divisions, slated for the
invasion of Kyushu had been expected to confront no more than 350,000 Japanese,
including eight to ten divisions. But decrypted communications identified
fourteen Imperial Army divisions as well as a number of tank and infantry
brigades—also at least 680,000 strong—most positioned on southern Kyushu.
Moreover, rather than only 2,500 to 3,000 aircraft to support their ground
troops against 10,000 American planes, the ULTRA sources and photographic
evidence revealed the Japanese had at least 5,900 to more than 10,000 aircraft,
half of them kamikazes, waiting to pummel the invasion convoys.
Soviet intervention would have reshaped the
burgeoning American debate over strategy to end the war in August 1945. The
most likely result would have been to discard Olympic for a draft plan to
invade northern Honshu in an attempt to prevent the Soviets from overrunning
more of Japan. Once this operation was complete, however, American leaders
would have balked at the prospect of conquering the remainder of the home
islands, hole by hole, rock by rock. The devastating results of the blockade
and bombardment strategy, as revealed from radio intelligence and other
sources, would have argued for the navy strategy of starving Japan into
submission. Only the possibility of liberating some POWs and internees would have
roused interest in further land campaigns in Japan, so long as they remained
limited with acceptable losses. Rising American frustration and fury would
likely have sparked the decision to unleash chemical warfare against the 1946
rice crops, as well as succeeding ones—a project under consideration in 1945.
The use of poison gas against Japan in support of the invasion had also been
under consideration in 1945. The prospect of an endless continuation of the war
to annihilate Japanese detachments in the home islands may have lifted that
taboo as well. American air power and logistics, but not ground forces, would
have aided the Allies in defeating Japanese units on the Asian continent.
The Pacific War would have dragged on for
probably two to five more years—perhaps longer. The overall cost would have
easily exceeded five million deaths in Japan alone by conservative estimates,
and equal or double that number among all the nations and peoples caught in
this protracted agony. While there would have been no division of Korea and
hence no Korean War, there would have been a sharply divisive Soviet- American
rivalry in the home islands to match the one along the uneasy borders of
Europe. The surviving Japanese people would have languished in poverty and bitterness
for decades. Thus the atomic bomb, for all its horror, was the “least abhorrent
choice.”
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